⚽ New blog post: Were there too many unlikely results at the FIFA World Cup 2022 in Qatar? 🔗 ikashnitsky.github.io/2022/exc… 📌 I'm running an experiment where I consistently bet on the least likely outcome and track how my fictional balance changes over time. This simple strategy would work fantastic in 2022 😲 ⌨️ #rstats code to replicate the analysis: gist.github.com/ikashnitsky/e7…
![A plot with 4 lines representing the results for the latest World Cup 2022 (darkest line with all the unlikely outcomes annotated) in comparison with three previous World Cups, 2018, 2014, and 2010.
I simulate the scenario where I consistently bet on the **least likely outcome** and track how my fictional balance changes over time. Out of the three possible outcomes of the games -- (1) home team wins, (2) draw in main time, and (3) away team wins [^3] -- I always select the one that promises the highest odds, meaning that this outcome is considered the least likely of the three by the bookmakers.
Decreasing step lines in the plot represent my decreasing fictional balance. Each game I bet 1 coin on the least likely outcome. Most often I lose this bet, and my balance decreases. Though, sometimes the least likely outcome happens, then my balance increases substantially by the size of the unlikely outcome odds. For example, in case of Argentina losing to Saudi Arabia the odds for this outcome was 25.](https://perl.social/photo/preview/640/5165 "A plot with 4 lines representing the results for the latest World Cup 2022 (darkest line with all the unlikely outcomes annotated) in comparison with three previous World Cups, 2018, 2014, and 2010.
I simulate the scenario where I consistently bet on the **least likely outcome** and track how my fictional balance changes over time. Out of the three possible outcomes of the games -- (1) home team wins, (2) draw in main time, and (3) away team wins [^3] -- I always select the one that promises the highest odds, meaning that this outcome is considered the least likely of the three by the bookmakers.
Decreasing step lines in the plot represent my decreasing fictional balance. Each game I bet 1 coin on the least likely outcome. Most often I lose this bet, and my balance decreases. Though, sometimes the least likely outcome happens, then my balance increases substantially by the size of the unlikely outcome odds. For example, in case of Argentina losing to Saudi Arabia the odds for this outcome was 25.")
